LATIN AMERICA AND THE CHALLENGE OF NAVIGATING
A "MULTIPLEX WORLD"
Amitav Acharya helps us reflect on the region and the global scenario. |
by Félix Peña
August 2017
English translation: Isabel Romero Carranza
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In a "multiplex world" - a concept propounded
by Amitav Acharya - multiple players reflecting cultural diversity and
the unequal distribution of relative power compete at several simultaneous
levels. These players include not only national states but also international
organizations, companies, other non-governmental actors and even geographic
regions with a certain degree of institutionalization, such as the EU,
or those regions that aspire to be similar.
The idea of a "multiplex world" becomes more relevant in
light of the changes that can be observed today in the international system
and especially in the global trading system. Unlike the international
system that resulted from World War II, the one that is emerging now does
not reflect the point of view or the interests of a superior power, not
even of a group of powers with sufficient clout to impose, in a sustained
way, their will on the rest. Therefore, it is more difficult to identify
who could create the new ground rules of international competition.
In a world with such characteristics, the protagonists have to be
clear about their goals and what they can aspire to achieve, especially
due to the relative value they have in the perspective of the other protagonists
with whom they interact.
At least three factors explain the new international scenarios that
have an impact on the relative value that each country has for the rest.
The first is world population; the demographic growth and the age pyramid
generate a population map with marked differences to those of the past.
The other factor is the connectivity of nations and markets, not only
physical connection but also economic and cultural. The third factor is
that all the players - nations or regions, consumers or producers, companies
or citizens- perceive multiple options to achieve their objectives. Understanding
the dynamics of such options will be a necessary condition in order to
compete and negotiate from now on.
Three consequences can be anticipated for the international strategy
of Latin American countries. The first is the need to have quality diagnostics
on the changes that are at work in all the regions and countries. The
second is the development of capabilities for negotiating worldwide and
simultaneously. The third is the need to articulate the efforts around
the goals for international integration that reflect an assertive vision
of what they aspire to achieve.
What role can the Latin American region play in relation to the strategy
for the insertion of its different countries in a "multiplex world"
and to influence the eventual redesign of the institutions and rules of
global governance? This has become a very topical question.
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The concept of "multiplex world" was propounded by Amitav
Acharya, professor of the American University - Washington D.C., in his
book "The End of American World Order", published by Polity
Press in 2014. (In this regard, see the July
2014 edition of this newsletter, and the April
2015 edition on http://www.felixpena.com.ar/). Later on, Acharya developed
his idea of a "multiplex world" in articles published this year
and whose references can be found as recommended reading of this newsletter.
In a "multiplex world", a plurality of actors with a range
of cultural diversities and unequal relative power can compete simultaneously
on multiple levels and scenarios. They are, among others, national states,
but they can also be international organizations, companies, and other
non-governmental actors, including different types of transnational networks.
Sometimes they are geographic regions with a certain degree of institutionalization,
such as the European Union, or those regions who aspire to be similar.
It is a world of interaction and continuous negotiation and in which
violence in its various forms is one of the modalities used in the confrontation
between the players. However, none of them has sufficient power to impose,
on a continuous basis and single-handedly, a certain global or regional
order, with its institutions and its rules. Therefore, it is a world in
which hegemonic aspirations have limited and not necessarily sustainable
effects.
The idea of a "multiplex world" becomes more relevant in light
of the profound changes that are at work today in the international system
and especially in the global trading system. (See the June
2017 edition and July
2017 edition of this newsletter on http://www.felixpena.com.ar/).
Unlike the international system that resulted from World War II, the one
that is emerging now does not reflect the prospects or the interests of
a single stronger power, not even those of a group of powers with sufficient
clout to impose, in a sustained way, their will to the rest. Therefore,
it is becoming increasingly difficult to identify who will create the
new ground rules of the international competition of the future.
In a world of such characteristics, all the actors navigate according
to what they believe are their own possibilities. This means having a
correct diagnosis of the margins of maneuver allowed by the realities
of the distribution of world power, including the knowledge of the spaces
of agreement that exist between the other players. This is valid both
in the global geographic space and in each of the regional or sub regional
spaces. Each player needs to be clear about its goals. Above all, it needs
to be clear about what can be realistically achieved, especially as a
consequence of the relative value it has in the perspective of the other
actors with whom it interacts. (See the May
2012 edition of this newsletter on http://www.felixpena.com.ar/, and
particularly the reference to the book by Ian Bremmer, "Every Nation
for Itself. Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World", Portfolio/Penguin,
New York 2012).
The diagnoses that are made as well as the strategies and courses of
action that any actor attempts to develop in the international system,
including possible alliances, are exposed to the constant changes of the
dynamic political and economic contexts.
At least three factors explain the new international scenarios that affect
the relative value that each country may have for the others.
The first is world population. Not only its sheer number but also its
demographic growth and age pyramids have generated a population map with
marked differences to those of the past. In relative terms, countries
in Asia, Africa and Latin America are becoming increasingly prominent
in international relations, whether political, economic or cultural. It
is a population in which the distribution of income has given rise to
a phenomenon with an impact on social behavior, life expectancy, and consumption
levels. We are referring to the growth of the urban middle class, with
capacity for consumption and access to information about its options and,
therefore, a relative empowerment, all of which are impossible to ignore
in the strategies for insertion in the world of any country
The second factor is the connectedness of nations and markets. Physical
connection, but also economic and cultural. The world has become more
connected due to technological changes. It is a world that, being more
connected, is more similar in many aspects and more differentiated in
priorities and expectations. Goods and services, ideas and values, customs
and patterns of consumption tend to be assimilated and, at the same time,
differentiated largely due to cultural factors. Understanding them is
a growing need for those trying to compete successfully in global markets.
The third factor is that all the players - nations or regions, consumers
or producers, companies or citizens - perceive multiple options to achieve
their objectives. Understanding the dynamics of such options will henceforth
be a necessary condition for competing and negotiating.
All what was mentioned above signals the entry into a dynamic, complex
and unpredictable world. Operating in such a world will require reconciling
short-term visions and interests with those of the very long term. It
will require identifying and evaluating all possible options and also
having the ability to predict and capture, in time, the continuous shifts
in the competitive advantages of nations originated in technological changes,
in variations of relative power, or in cultural transformations that affect
values and priorities.
Three consequences can be anticipated for the international strategy
of Latin American countries, including Argentina. One is the need to have
quality diagnostics on the changes happening in all regions and countries
with a potential impact on the supply of their goods and services, in
order to compete in their markets. It implies organizational efforts to
harness the capacity available in the academia at all levels.
Another consequence is the need to develop negotiating capabilities with
the whole world simultaneously, without assigning priorities. For countries
with the advantages that prevail in the Latin American region, every potential
trading partner is valuable. It is certainly not easy to put this into
practice. It implies overcoming tendencies to prioritize this or that
country for historical, cultural or, worse still, ideological reasons.
Negotiating strategies that favor one country or region over another are
not recommended for countries such as Argentina and many of its Latin
American partners, which are quite distant from the key international
power players but that, due to their natural resources, business experience,
talent, creativity and cultural and ethnic diversity, have what it takes
to be valued by a broad spectrum of other nations and markets. For Latin
American countries and for Argentina, choosing the Atlantic over the Pacific,
in the region, or Europe over the US or China, in the world, or any given
country or group of countries, would not be advisable at all. This has
become a dated practice.
And the third consequence would be the need to articulate social efforts
around the goals for international insertion that reflect an assertive
vision of what the country aims to achieve.
What role can the Latin American region play in relation to the strategy
for the insertion of its different countries in a "multiplex world"
and to influence the eventual redesign of the institutions and rules of
global governance? This is a very topical question if we take into account
the schedule of meetings in which Latin American countries will participate
in the upcoming months and until the end of 2018. Among these international
meetings, three are worth noting: the Eleventh WTO Ministerial Conference,
to be held in Buenos Aires in December 2017; the meeting of the CELAC-China
Forum, that will take place in Santiago de Chile, in January 2018, and
the G20 Summit, also to be held in Buenos Aires, in November 2018.
During the Seminar on the Alliance of the Pacific and Mercosur, organized
by the INTAL in Mendoza last July 19, on the occasion of the recent Mercosur
Summit (see http://conexionintal.iadb.org/),
the participants discussed the coordination between the countries of the
region, both in relation to their insertion in the new global economic
context and the renewal of the agendas of Latin American regional integration
processes. An assertive vision of the opportunities and, at the same time,
challenges that the new global reality poses for the countries of the
region prevailed. It was pointed out that, faced with such opportunities
and challenges, Latin American countries had to adapt their strategies
and, in particular, their methodologies of joint work taking into account
that many of the concepts, paradigms and formulas of the past are now
becoming obsolete.
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Félix Peña Director
of the Institute of International Trade at the ICBC Foundation. Director
of the Masters Degree in International Trade Relations at Tres de Febrero
National University (UNTREF). Member of the Executive Committee of the
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI). Member of the Evian
Group Brains Trust. More
information.
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