PROPOSALS FOR AN AGENDA TO HELP NAVIGATE
A WORLD UNDERGOING PROFOUND AND UNCERTAIN TRANSFORMATIONS |
por Félix Peña
February 2024
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Today's world is characterized by a growing predominance
of events and factors that signal a marked tendency towards transformation
at many relevant levels, including that of power relations between nations,
and increasingly among the larger ones.
On this occasion, we will only address some of the
fronts of action that we consider to be the most relevant. These are the
ones that will require greater attention from countries, such as Argentina
and its various regional partners, who are wondering how to navigate a
world of profound changes such as the current one.
In today's international reality, some of these fronts
may include the following: "intelligent information or action-oriented
think tanks", " polygamist approaches", and the "art
of trade mini-deals".
They are certainly not the only ones, nor the most
important, but they are among the most innovative in relative terms and
will require special efforts from international competitors from countries
in the region.
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Today's world is characterized by the growing prevalence of events and
factors that signal a clear trend towards transformations that manifest
themselves at many relevant levels. These are changes that affect the
distribution of relative power between nations and regions. They will
have a significant impact on the global competitiveness and foreign trade
agendas of the Mercosur countries, including those of the South American
region.
In particular, they impact the capacity that the different actors have-
or believe they have-in the different spheres of interaction and competition
between nations, including those with significant protagonism of countries
with greater relative economic and political power.
In this opportunity, we will only address some of the relevant issues
that require greater attention from those countries that need to ask themselves
how to navigate in today's world of profound and significant changes.
This is the case, for example, for countries like Argentina and its regional
partners.
Among other things, these relevant issues relate to the quality of the
information needed to operate with reasonable expectations of success
on some of the fronts of action that may be necessary for the effectiveness
of strategies adapted to the new regional and global reality that is emerging.
In fact, these are the ones that Argentina and the countries of the region,
especially those belonging to Mercosur or effectively linked to it, have
applied and perhaps should continue to apply in the future.
Without prejudice to other possibilities in the international and regional
reality that is beginning to emerge, the fronts of action may include
the following:
- that of "intelligent information or action-oriented think tanks",
understood as those institutions (public, private or mixed) that can
process and provide intelligent information, especially that necessary
to compete successfully in the supply of goods, technologies or services
demanded by other countries, and therefore, required to compete effectively
and successfully on a global or regional scale;
- that of the "polygamist approach", understood as the plurality
and diversity of countries with which a country can partner in order
to act together on the international scene. It therefore implies the
need to adapt to the plurality and, in particular, the diversity and
multiplicity of relevant actors that a country employs in its partnership
strategy, both for diagnosis and action in its competition with different
countries; and
- that of the "art of mini-trade-deals", understood as agreements
covering only partial aspects of those usually included in the mega-agreements
on production and trade cooperation that countries usually conclude
with other countries with which they interact. In this respect, see,
among other recent publications, "The art of mini deals: 2000 missing
variables and counting", By Lucien Cermat, VOX EU- CPR, published
in October of 2023.
Just stating this shows the importance of the quality of the information
that will be required for a country to be in a position to successfully
implement a strategy encompassing all three fronts.
It is in relation to these three fronts that the role that each country's
diplomatic representation can play, as well as the intelligent use of
the many regional organizations to which a country may belong, such as
ALADI, ECLAC, CAF and INTAL-IDB, would gain full value and relevance.
Other sources of information may come from the transnational networks
to which a country's companies or those operating in that country are
linked, the various media, above all, from journalists specializing in
regional cooperation, and, in particular, from academic and cultural institutions.
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- Cernat, Lucien, "The art of mini deals: 2000 missing variables
and counting", VOX EU - CEPR.
- Cernat, Lucien, "The art of the mini-deals: The Invisible Part
of the EU Trade Policy", European Centre for International Political
Economy", October 2023.
- Cernat, Lucien, "How important are the Mutual Recognition Agreements
for Trade Facilitation", European Centre for International Political
Economy, December 2022.
- Claussen, Kathleen, "Trade mini-deals", Virginia Journal
for International Law 62 (2): 315-382; 2021
- Claussen, Kathleen "The Improvised Implementation of Executive
Agreements", The University of Chicago Law Review, vol 89, 1655-17,
2022.
- Lim, Guanie; Nguyen, Nhat Anh, "The ASEAN-Japan relationship
50 years on", East Asia Forum, January 20, 2024, www.eastasiaforum.org.
- Mc Colman; P.R.W Staiger and G.M.Grossman, "The new economics
of trade agreements", VOX-EU org., September 23, 2023.
- Peña, Félix, "Apoyar las nuevas visiones de análisis
para el desarrollo del comercio internacional", Foreign Trade Supplement,
newspaper La Nación, January 25, 2024.
- Sanahuja, José Antonio; Stefanoni, Pablo (eds.), "América
Latina en el Interregno: Política, Economía e Inserción
Internacional", Annual Report 2023-2024, Fundación Carolina,
December 2023, Madrid.
- Stailings, Barbara, "Save a seat for the Global South",
East Asia Forum, January 19, 2024, www.eastasiaforum.org.
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Félix Peña es Director
del Instituto de Comercio Internacional de la Fundación ICBC; Director
de la Maestría en Relaciones Comerciales Internacionales de la
Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero (UNTREF); Miembro del Comité
Ejecutivo del Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (CARI).
Miembro del Brains Trust del Evian Group. Ampliar
trayectoria.
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