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  Félix Peña

INTERNATIONAL TRADE RELATIONS NEWSLETTER
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PROPOSALS FOR AN AGENDA TO HELP NAVIGATE A WORLD UNDERGOING PROFOUND AND UNCERTAIN TRANSFORMATIONS

por Félix Peña
February 2024


 

Today's world is characterized by a growing predominance of events and factors that signal a marked tendency towards transformation at many relevant levels, including that of power relations between nations, and increasingly among the larger ones.

On this occasion, we will only address some of the fronts of action that we consider to be the most relevant. These are the ones that will require greater attention from countries, such as Argentina and its various regional partners, who are wondering how to navigate a world of profound changes such as the current one.

In today's international reality, some of these fronts may include the following: "intelligent information or action-oriented think tanks", " polygamist approaches", and the "art of trade mini-deals".

They are certainly not the only ones, nor the most important, but they are among the most innovative in relative terms and will require special efforts from international competitors from countries in the region.


Today's world is characterized by the growing prevalence of events and factors that signal a clear trend towards transformations that manifest themselves at many relevant levels. These are changes that affect the distribution of relative power between nations and regions. They will have a significant impact on the global competitiveness and foreign trade agendas of the Mercosur countries, including those of the South American region.

In particular, they impact the capacity that the different actors have- or believe they have-in the different spheres of interaction and competition between nations, including those with significant protagonism of countries with greater relative economic and political power.

In this opportunity, we will only address some of the relevant issues that require greater attention from those countries that need to ask themselves how to navigate in today's world of profound and significant changes. This is the case, for example, for countries like Argentina and its regional partners.

Among other things, these relevant issues relate to the quality of the information needed to operate with reasonable expectations of success on some of the fronts of action that may be necessary for the effectiveness of strategies adapted to the new regional and global reality that is emerging.

In fact, these are the ones that Argentina and the countries of the region, especially those belonging to Mercosur or effectively linked to it, have applied and perhaps should continue to apply in the future.

Without prejudice to other possibilities in the international and regional reality that is beginning to emerge, the fronts of action may include the following:

  • that of "intelligent information or action-oriented think tanks", understood as those institutions (public, private or mixed) that can process and provide intelligent information, especially that necessary to compete successfully in the supply of goods, technologies or services demanded by other countries, and therefore, required to compete effectively and successfully on a global or regional scale;

  • that of the "polygamist approach", understood as the plurality and diversity of countries with which a country can partner in order to act together on the international scene. It therefore implies the need to adapt to the plurality and, in particular, the diversity and multiplicity of relevant actors that a country employs in its partnership strategy, both for diagnosis and action in its competition with different countries; and

  • that of the "art of mini-trade-deals", understood as agreements covering only partial aspects of those usually included in the mega-agreements on production and trade cooperation that countries usually conclude with other countries with which they interact. In this respect, see, among other recent publications, "The art of mini deals: 2000 missing variables and counting", By Lucien Cermat, VOX EU- CPR, published in October of 2023.

Just stating this shows the importance of the quality of the information that will be required for a country to be in a position to successfully implement a strategy encompassing all three fronts.

It is in relation to these three fronts that the role that each country's diplomatic representation can play, as well as the intelligent use of the many regional organizations to which a country may belong, such as ALADI, ECLAC, CAF and INTAL-IDB, would gain full value and relevance.

Other sources of information may come from the transnational networks to which a country's companies or those operating in that country are linked, the various media, above all, from journalists specializing in regional cooperation, and, in particular, from academic and cultural institutions.


Recommended reading:


  • Cernat, Lucien, "The art of mini deals: 2000 missing variables and counting", VOX EU - CEPR.
  • Cernat, Lucien, "The art of the mini-deals: The Invisible Part of the EU Trade Policy", European Centre for International Political Economy", October 2023.
  • Cernat, Lucien, "How important are the Mutual Recognition Agreements for Trade Facilitation", European Centre for International Political Economy, December 2022.
  • Claussen, Kathleen, "Trade mini-deals", Virginia Journal for International Law 62 (2): 315-382; 2021
  • Claussen, Kathleen "The Improvised Implementation of Executive Agreements", The University of Chicago Law Review, vol 89, 1655-17, 2022.
  • Lim, Guanie; Nguyen, Nhat Anh, "The ASEAN-Japan relationship 50 years on", East Asia Forum, January 20, 2024, www.eastasiaforum.org.
  • Mc Colman; P.R.W Staiger and G.M.Grossman, "The new economics of trade agreements", VOX-EU org., September 23, 2023.
  • Peña, Félix, "Apoyar las nuevas visiones de análisis para el desarrollo del comercio internacional", Foreign Trade Supplement, newspaper La Nación, January 25, 2024.
  • Sanahuja, José Antonio; Stefanoni, Pablo (eds.), "América Latina en el Interregno: Política, Economía e Inserción Internacional", Annual Report 2023-2024, Fundación Carolina, December 2023, Madrid.
  • Stailings, Barbara, "Save a seat for the Global South", East Asia Forum, January 19, 2024, www.eastasiaforum.org.

Félix Peña es Director del Instituto de Comercio Internacional de la Fundación ICBC; Director de la Maestría en Relaciones Comerciales Internacionales de la Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero (UNTREF); Miembro del Comité Ejecutivo del Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (CARI). Miembro del Brains Trust del Evian Group. Ampliar trayectoria.

http://www.felixpena.com.ar | info@felixpena.com.ar


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